Turkey's emphasis on military programs aimed at improving and enhancing its landing capabilities in tandem with the aggressive deployment of the 4th Army - known as the Aegean Army - have generated serious questions among staffers at the Greek ministry of defence. The same staffers are extremely concerned about the deterioration of Greek-Turkish relations, which could lead to extraordinary tension between the two countries. Those in relevant diplomatic and military circles in Athens told the Athens News that Ankara’s acquisition of 100 landing ships and amphibious tanks, in parallel with the addition of thousands of Turkish marines to its existing force, are part of Turkey’s psychological war against Greece.

The same sources believe the Turkish military leadership wants to broadcast the message that it stands ready for all eventualities, a confrontation in the Aegean included. This perception is reinforced by the fact that this year’s 4th Army’s annual exercise, codenamed EFES, includes training to land on and occupy islands. This development takes on particular interest in light of continuing overflights by Turkish combat aircraft of the islands of Agathonissi and Farmakonissi. Turkish combat aircraft continue to overfly islands that are not explicitly named in international treaties.

Greece insists that international treaties guarantee its sovereignty over these islands. Turkey regards these islands as grey zones, with Ankara proposing dialogue with Greece to clarify sovereignty. The 42nd round of the exploratory Greek-Turkish talks regarding the Aegean was concluded on July 22, but discussions reached an impasse again owing to the Turkish diplomacy’s insistence on disputing Greece’s national sovereign rights.

Two conflicting schools of thought prevail in the Greek government. The first holds that the current Turkish provocativeness is not unprecedented and is connected with both the internal Turkish conflict between secularist Kemalists and political Islam, and the burgeoning feeling of insecurity Turks have in connection with their EU accession. The second holds that the Greek government’s low-key approach towards Turkey has convinced Ankara that it can advance Turkish interests unilaterally. According to the second school of thought, Turkey’s political leaders have concluded that Greece’s political fluidity and the Karamanlis government’s plight permit them to redefine the rules of the game. Diplomatic sources think that behind-the-scenes consultations have already taken place between Turkey and the American side, which adheres to an attitude of strict neutrality towards questions over the Aegean.

The Turkish strategy appears to be multifaceted: - Turkey is trying to create the impression, through overflights of Greek islands, that the Aegean’s status is obscure and has to be clarified through Greek-Turkish bilateral negotiations - Turkey wants to brief European and Nato audiences on Turkish positions unilaterally by publicising, on the website of the Turkish General Staff, alleged violations of Turkish airspace by Greek aircraft - By announcing “geophysical exploration” on the Greek continental shelf, Turkey has expressed its determination to co-manage and co-rule the Aegean - By insisting on the Annan Plan for Cyprus, Turkey promotes the Yes vote of Turkish Cypriots in the 2004 referendum to apportion responsibility to Nicosia - By continuously boosting its defence infrastructure and landing capabilities,

Turkey has expressed its everlasting readiness to seek “dynamic solutions” if Athens does not agree to dialogue Greek diplomats believe that if their country continues to back Turkey’s aspiration for EU membership, then relations between the nations will, sooner rather than later, normalise. However, another dilemma looms. When Turkey’s ships set sail to look for oil off the island of Kastelorizo, Greece will have to either halt the effort, and risk a confrontation, or ignore it, thus recognising that Turkey has “vital interests” in the Aegean.

Views and opinions expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of AHC Board members.
This is a re-publication from Athens News on 7/27/2009. Click here to view the original article.